Friday January 03 2020
France Inflation Rate Climbs to 1-Year High of 1.4%
INSEE | Agna Gabriel | agna.gabriel@tradingeconomics.com

France's annual inflation rate is expected to pick up to 1.4 percent in December 2019 from 1.0 percent in the previous month, preliminary estimates showed. That was the highest inflation since December 2018.

Prices should rise at a faster pace for services (1.4 percent vs 1.3 percent in November) and energy cost is expected to rebound (2.6 percent vs -0.6 percent). Meanwhile, inflation should be steady for food (at 2.1 percent) and tobacco (at 15.3 percent) while cost of manufactured products will probably edge down (-0.2 percent vs -0.6 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices are expected to rise 0.4 percent, following a 0.1 percent gain in November.

The harmonised index of consumer prices is seen rising 1.6 percent from the previous year (vs 1.2 percent in November); and 0.5 percent month-over-month (vs 0.1 percent in November).




Thursday December 12 2019
French Inflation Rate Confirmed at 1%
INSEE | Rafael Gonzalez | rafael.gonzalez@tradingeconomics.com

The inflation rate in France was confirmed at 1.0 percent year-on-year in November of 2019, accelerating from a 0.8 percent rise in the previous month.

Food prices rose faster (2.1 percent vs 1.8 percent in October), particularly those of fresh products rebounded (2.3 percent vs -0.1 percent); while tobacco cost sharply accelerated (15.3 percent vs 8.8 percent) due to a high tax rise. In addition, services prices gathered pace (1.3 percent vs 1.2 percent), as cost advanced faster for transport (2.1 percent vs 1.6 percent); communication (2.3 percent vs 0.9 percent) and housing-related services (0.8 percent vs 0.7 percent). Meantime, energy prices dropped at a softer pace (-0.6 percent vs -1.6 percent), mainly petroleum products (-1.9 percent vs -4.5 percent). 

On the other hand, manufactured product prices continued to fall (-0.6 percent vs -0.5 percent), as cost slumped for clothing & footwear (-0.2 percent vs 0.2 percent); “other manufactured products” (-0.2 percent vs -0.1 percent); furniture (-0.1 percent vs 0.8 percent) and health product (-3.0 percent, the same as in October). 

Annual core inflation, which excludes public sector prices, the most volatile consumer prices and the tax measures, rose 1.0 percent in November, the same as in the previous month. 

On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.1 percent, after a flat reading in the previous month, as prices rose faster for tobacco (6.0 percent vs a flat reading); energy (0.3 percent vs a flat reading) and food (0.1 percent vs -0.4 percent). Meanwhile, cost dropped for services (-0.2 percent vs -0.1 percent) and manufactured products (-0.1 percent vs 0.3 percent). 

The harmonized index of consumer prices increased by 1.2 percent from the previous year, following a 0.9 percent rise in October, while it rose by 0.1 percent month-over-month (vs -0.1 percent in October).


Friday December 06 2019
France Posts Smallest Trade Gap in 5 Months
Ministère de l'Économie et des Finances | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

The French trade deficit shrank to EUR 4.73 billion in October 2019 from a downwardly revised EUR 5.42 billion in the previous month and slightly below market expectations of a EUR 4.8 billion gap. This was the smallest trade gap since May, as exports surged 3.4 percent while imports went up at a softer 1.5 percent.

Exports advanced 3.4 percent over the previous month to EUR 43.0 billion in October, mainly boosted by shipments of transport equipment (18.5 percent), namely aerospace products (15.8 percent), vehicles (1.1 percent) and parts (1.6 percent); publishing and communication products (17 percent) and art products (134.4 percent). In contrast, sales decreased for other industrial products (-0.5 percent), due to pharmaceuticals (-6.8 percent); mechanical, electrical, electronic and computer equipment (-0.2 percent); agribusiness products (-2.3 percent) and refined petroleum products (-30.9 percent).

Among major trade partners, exports went up to Germany (0.7 percent), Italy (1.9 percent), the UK (3.2 percent), Switzerland (52.8 percent), China (9.3 percent), Japan (3.9 percent) and India (104.1 percent), but declined to Spain (-0.8 percent), Belgium (-2.4 percent), the Netherlands (-8.9 percent) and the US (-1.9 percent)

Imports rose at a slower 1.5 percent to EUR 47.74 billion, amid higher acquisitions of other industrial products (0.9 percent) such as chemicals, perfumes and cosmetics (0.9 percent), textiles, clothing, leather and shoes (1.3 percent) and pharmaceuticals (6.2 percent); mechanical, electrical, electronic and computer equipment (0.4 percent); transport equipment (2.6 percent), of which aerospace products (12.9 percent); natural hydrocarbons, mining products, electricity (7.5 percent); agribusiness products (1.1 percent); refined petroleum products (0.7 percent) and agricultural, forestry, fishery and aquaculture products (7.6 percent).

Among major trade partners, imports increased from Germany (1.8 percent), Italy (2.1 percent), the UK (13 percent), Thailand (118.9 percent), but they fell from Spain (-0.1 percent), Belgium (-1.7 percent), the Netherlands (-6.5 percent), Switzerland (-1.5 percent), the US (-4.4 percent) and China (-1.3 percent). 




Friday November 29 2019
French Q3 GDP Growth Confirmed at 0.3%
INSEE | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

France's quarterly economic growth was confirmed at 0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2019, the same rate as in the previous three-month period.

Final domestic demand excluding inventory changes contributed 0.6 points to GDP growth, after 0.5 points in the previous quarter. In contrast, negative contributions came from both net external demand (-0.2 points vs 0.0 points) and changes in inventories (-0.1 points vs -0.2 points).

Household consumption expenditures accelerated (0.4 percent vs 0.2 percent) mainly due to a rebound in consumption of goods, while total gross fixed capital formation continued to expand at a solid pace (1.2 percent vs 1.3 percent). In addition, government spending growth was unchanged at 0.5 percent.

Imports bounced back (0.7 percent vs -0.3 percent) while exports fell for the second consecutive period (-0.1 percent vs -0.2 percent).

Year-on-year, the economy expanded 1.4 percent in the third quarter, the same pace as in the previous three-month period and compared to a preliminary figure of 1.3 percent.




Friday November 29 2019
French Inflation Rate Accelerates in November
INSEE | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

France's annual inflation rate is expected to pick up to 1.0 percent in November 2019 from an over two-year low of 0.8 percent in the previous month, a preliminary estimate showed.

Prices should rise at a faster pace for tobacco (15.3 percent vs 8.8 percent in October), services (1.3 percent vs 1.2 percent), and food (2.1 percent vs 1.8 percent), boosted by a rebound in fresh food costs (2.2 percent vs -0.1 percent).

Meanwhile, prices are set to fall for energy (-0.7 percent vs -1.6 percent) and manufactured products (-0.6 percent vs -0.5 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices are expected to rise 0.1 percent, after being unchanged in October. Tobacco prices should increase sharply, due to a tax hike, while energy cost is seen advancing slightly due to a rebound in gas prices. Food prices are likely to rebound very moderately. Contrariwise, services prices should drop a little more than in the previous month and those of manufactured goods should edge down barely.

The harmonised index of consumer prices is seen rising 1.2 percent from the previous year (vs 0.9 percent in October); and 0.1 percent month-over-month (vs -0.1 percent in October).


Thursday November 14 2019
French October Inflation Rate Revised Up to 0.8%
INSEE | Rafael Gonzalez | rafael.gonzalez@tradingeconomics.com

The French consumer price inflation rate came in at 0.8 percent year-on-year in October of 2019, from 0.9 percent in the prior month, but above preliminary estimates of 0.7 percent. It was the lowest rate since July of 2017.

Energy cost dropped for the first time since September 2016 (-1.6 percent vs 0.2 percent in September), as prices continued to fall for petroleum products (-4.5 percent vs -2.6 percent) and gas (-7.8 percent vs -3.4 percent). Also, food cost increased at a much softer pace (1.8 percent vs 2.1 percent), particularly fresh products (-0.1 percent vs 2.0 percent) amid a drop in prices of fresh vegetables (-3.7 percent vs 2.6 percent). 

On the other hand, services inflation was steady (at 1.2 percent), as transport services prices advanced faster (1.6 percent vs 0.8 percent) while prices slowed for “other services” (1.6 percent vs 1.7 percent) and housing-related services (0.7 percent vs 0.8 percent). Also, health services cost went down (-0.2 percent vs -0.3 percent) while inflation was steady for communication services (at 0.9 percent). 

Annual core inflation, which excludes public sector prices, the most volatile consumer prices and the tax measures, increased to 1.0 percent in October from 0.9 percent in the previous month. 

On a monthly basis, consumer prices showed no growth in October, after a 0.3 percent fall in the previous month, as prices decreased less for services (-0.1 percent vs -1.3 percent) and food (-0.4 percent vs -0.5 percent). In contrast, manufactured products prices went up at a softer pace (0.3 percent vs 1.5 percent). 

The harmonized index of consumer prices increased by 0.9 percent from the previous year, following a 1.1 percent rise in September, while it fell by 0.1 percent month-over-month (vs -0.4 percent in September).


Thursday November 14 2019
French Jobless Rate Rises to 8.6% in Q3
INSEE, France | Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The unemployment rate in France inched higher to 8.6 percent in the third quarter of 2019 from 8.5 percent in the previous period and above market expectations of 8.4 percent.

In metropolitan France only, the unemployment rate edged up 0.1 points over the quarter to 8.3 percent, as the number of unemployed increased by 10,000 to 2.5 million people. The rate was 0.1 points higher among those aged 50 and over and stable among persons aged 25 to 49, while it fell 0.2 points among youths. The long-term unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.4 percent in the third quarter.

The employment rate of the population aged 15-64 years fell 0.3 points to 65.2 percent. Over the quarter, the employment rate among persons aged 15 to 24 was virtually stable (-0.1 points) while it decreased among those aged 50 to 64 (-0.3 points) and middle-aged people (-0.4 points). Full-time employment rate fell 0.4 points to 53.8 percent, almost returning to the level reached in the third quarter of 2018. Part-time employment rate was stable at 11.3 percent.

About 5.4 percent of the employed persons were underemployed, up 0.1 points over a quarter. It mainly concerns people having a part-time job and wishing to work more.

The activity rate of people aged 15-64 decreased 0.3 points to 71.3 percent. Quarter-on-quarter, it decreased by 0.2 points among youths and by 0.4 points among middle-age people.




Friday November 08 2019
French Trade Gap Widens as Exports Fall
Ministère de l'Économie et des Finances | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

The French trade deficit widened to EUR 5.55 billion in September 2019 from an upwardly revised EUR 5.44 billion in the previous month and compared with market expectations of a EUR 4.8 billion gap. Exports fell 2.3 percent month-over-month while imports dropped at a softer 1.8 percent. Considering the third quarter as a whole, the country’s trade gap was recorded at EUR 16 billion compared to a EUR 14.5 deficit in the previous period.

Exports declined 2.3 percent over the previous month to EUR 41.73 billion in September, mainly due to lower sales of mechanical, electrical, electronic and computer equipment (-1.8 percent), natural hydrocarbons, mining products, electricity (-3.5 percent), transport equipment (-8.3 percent), and art products (-5.8 percent). Meanwhile, sales rose for agribusiness products (7.1 percent), other industrial products (0.6 percent), agricultural, forestry, fishery and aquaculture products (7.1 percent) and refined petroleum products (31.3 percent).

Among major trade partners, exports fell to Germany (-1.7 percent), the UK (-9 percent), Switzerland (-0.9 percent), 
Poland (-3.7 percent), Japan (-9.7 percent), Russia (-25.2 percent), Italy (-2.3 percent), Belgium (-1.7 percent), and China & Hong Kong (-3.5 percent); but increased to the US (0.8 percent), Spain (1.5 percent), the Netherlands (4.4 percent), Portugal (4.9 percent) and Turkey (4.4 percent).

Imports went down at a slower 1.8 percent to EUR 47.28 billion, as purchases dropped for transport equipment (-8.9 percent), agricultural, forestry, fishery and aquaculture products (-8.7 percent), agribusiness products (-1.4 percent), and natural hydrocarbons, mining products, electricity (-17.4 percent). On the other hand, imports increased for mechanical, electrical, electronic and computer equipment (2.2 percent) and  refined petroleum products (1.8 percent).

Among major trade partners, imports decreased from Germany (-1.2 percent), Belgium (-4.4 percent), Spain (-1.5 percent), Russia (-25.3 percent), Czech Republic (-3.8 percent), Turkey (-2.4 percent) and Ireland (-10.5 percent); but went up from China & Hong Kong (1.1 percent), the US (5.5 percent), the UK (6.6 percent), Japan (1.2 percent), Italy (0.3 percent), the Netherlands (6.6 percent), and Switzerland (14.7 percent).


Thursday October 31 2019
French Inflation Rate at Over 2-Year Low
INSEE | Rafael Gonzalez | rafael.gonzalez@tradingeconomics.com

France's annual inflation rate is expected to fall to 0.7 percent in October of 2019 from 0.9 percent in the prior month, a preliminary estimate showed. That should be the lowest rate since July of 2017.

Energy prices are set to sharply fall 1.6 percent in October, compared to 0.2 percent in September; while food prices should advance 1.8 percent, slower than 2.1 percent in the previous month, on the back of a drop in fresh food cost (-0.1 percent vs 2.0 percent). Meanwhile, tobacco prices are expected to advanced faster (8.8 percent vs 8.7 percent) while manufactured products cost is likely to drop at a softer pace (-0.5 percent vs -0.7 percent).

Services prices, which account for almost half of the CPI, are expected to grow 1.2 percent, the same as in September. 

On a monthly basis, consumer prices should fall 0.1 percent (vs -0.3 percent in September). Energy prices should be stable, the rise in petroleum product prices being offset by an accentuated decrease in gas prices. Services cost should drop less after a sharp contraction in the previous month. Finally, food inflation should be steady while manufactured goods prices are set to slow down. 

The harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to rise 0.9 percent from the previous year (vs 1.1 percent in September); and fall 0.1 percent month-over-month (vs -0.4 percent in September).


Wednesday October 30 2019
French Q3 GDP Growth Beats Expectations
INSEE l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The French economy advanced 0.3 percent on quarter in the three months to September 2019, the same pace as in the previous two periods but above market estimates of a 0.2 percent growth, a preliminary estimate showed. Household consumption, government spending and fixed investment rose further while net foreign demand contributed negatively.

In the third quarter, internal demand excluding inventory changes  contributed 0.5 points to the GDP growth. Also, changes in inventories added 0.1 points. In contrast, net foreign trade contributed negatively (-0.4 points).

Within domestic demand, household consumption growth accelerated slightly (0.3 percent vs 0.2 percent in Q2), mainly due to the rebound of the consumption of goods (0.4 percent vs –0.1 percent). On the contrary, consumption of services decelerated (0.3 percent vs 0.4 percent), due to a slow in expenditure on accommodation and food services after a dynamic second quarter. Regarding goods, expenditures on engineered goods bounced back (1.6 percent vs –0.4 percent), driven by a rise in vehicle registration. Energy expenditures went back (–0.3 percent vs 0.8 percent). Finally, food expenditures decreased at a faster pace as in the previous quarter (–0.7 percent vs –0.1 percent). At the same time,  government spending rose by 0.4 percent, the same as in the June quarter. Fixed investment went up 0.9 percent, following a 1.2 percent growth in the prior quarter, as corporate investment grew at the same pace as the previous quarter (1.2 percent vs 1.1 percent), driven by expenditures in information-communication services and in transport equipment. Household investment halted (0.1 percent vs 1.6 percent), after the rise of real estate transactions in Q2 2019. 

Exports expanded 0.3 percent, reversing from a 0.1 percent fall in Q2; while imports grew at a faster 1.4 percent, compared to a 0.3 percent decline in Q2.

Year-on-year, the economy expanded 1.3 percent in the third quarter, following a 1.4 percent expansion in the previous three-month period.