モロッコ - 利率

The National Bank of Morocco held its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% at its September 24th 2019 meeting. The bank noted that inflation remains low, averaging 0.2% during the first eight months of the year, mainly due to lower food prices; and it is expected to remain subdued in the coming months, easing to 0.4% in 2019 (previously seen at 0.6%) from 1.9% in 2018, before rising to 1.2% in 2020, driven by the expected recovery of internal demand. Regarding growth, the economy is projected to slow to 2.7% in 2019 (previously seen at 2.8%) from 3% a year ago, mainly due to agricultural activity; but to quicken to 3.8% in 2020, as agricultural output is expected to grow 6.3%. The Board also decided to reduce the monetary reserve rate to 2% from 4%, to boost banking liquidity and confirmed that will issue 2 international bonds this year and next year that would boost international reserves to 239 billion dirhams in 2019 and 234.3 in 2020, enough to cover five months of imports.

The National Bank of Morocco held its monetary policy rate unchanged at 2.25% at its June 18th 2019 meeting. The bank noted that inflation was low during the first four months of the year; and it is expected to ease to 0.6% in 2019 from 1.9% in 2018, before rising to 1.2% in 2020, amid greater domestic demand. Linked to this, the government announced in late April a general increase in the minimum wages, with salaries in the private sector rising 10% over two years, with a 5% hike taking effect in July 2019 and a further 5% increase in July 2020. The economy is projected to slow to 2.8% in 2019 from 3% a year earlier, mainly due to lower agricultural output; but to speed up to 4% in 2020, as agriculture activity must rebound sharply, growing 6%.

The National Bank of Morocco left its monetary policy rate unchanged at 2.25% at its March 19th 2019 meeting. Policymakers said that the decision was based on medium-term prospects for the inflation rate trajectory, the economy and external accounts. The inflation ended 2018 at an average of 1.9%, mainly due to the rise in volatile food prices; and it is expected to be 0.6% in 2019 and 1.1% in 2020. The Board also noted a lower level of activity at 3% in Q3 2018 and projected a growth of 3.1% in 2018; 2.7% in 2019 and 3.9% in 2020. Agricultural activity is expected to fall 3.8% in 2019 and to rise 6% in 2020 while non-agricultural growth should accelerate to 3.4% in 2019 and 3.8% in 2020. Regarding external accounts, the current account gap worsened to 5.2% of GDP in 2018 from 3.6% a year earlier and it is expected at 4.1% in 2019 and 3.4% in 2020, particularly owing to an expected decline in energy imports and fewer capital goods purchases.