エジプト - 利率

The Central Bank of Egypt slashed again its key overnight deposit rate by 100 bps to 12.25% during its November meeting, as widely expected. This is the third consecutive rate cut, bringing the borrowing cost to its lowest since 2016. Policymakers said the decision provides appropriate support to economic activity, while remaining consistent with achieving the inflation target of 9% (±3%) in 2020 Q4 and price stability over the medium-term, despite the expected impact of unfavorable base effects in the near-term. The annual inflation rate fell sharply to a near 14-year low of 3.1% in October 2019, pushed down by lower prices of food, namely vegetables, as well as the statistical effect of a high base last year. Policymakers also noted that economic growth stabilized to a preliminary 5.6% in Q3 2019, the highest in eleven years. The overnight lending rate and the discount rate were also cut by 100 bps to 13.25% and 12.75%, respectively.

The Central Bank of Egypt lowered its key overnight deposit rate by 100 bps to 13.25 percent during its September meeting, as expected. This is the second straight rate cut as inflation continued to decline and stocks rebounded from steep losses following anti-government protests that rocked the markets in the beginning of the week. In August, headline inflation eased to an over 6-year low of 7.5 percent from 8.8 percent in July, moving closer to the lower limit of the Bank's target range of 6-12 percent. Policymakers reiterated that the pace and magnitude of future policy rates adjustment will continue to be subject to confirmation that inflation expectations are anchored at target levels that are consistent with disinflation and price stability over the medium term. The overnight lending rate and the discount rate were also cut by 100 bps to 14.25 percent and 13.75 percent, respectively.

The Central Bank of Egypt slashed its key overnight deposit rate by 150 bps to 14.25 percent during its August meeting, surprising markets who had forecast a smaller 100 bps cut, amid continued moderation of underlying inflationary pressures. Policymakers said the decision was consistent with achieving the inflation target of 9 percent (±3 percentage points) in 2020 Q4 and price stability over the medium term. Inflation declined significantly to 8.7 percent in July, its lowest in four years, even after the recently implemented fiscal consolidation measures, which included scaling back fuel subsidies and pushed fuel prices 16-30% higher. The bank also disclosed that economic growth picked up to 5.7 percent in Q2 2019 and 5.6 percent in fiscal year 2018/19, the highest in eleven years, according to a preliminary estimate. The overnight lending rate and the discount rate were also reduced by 150 bps to 15.25 percent and 14.75 percent, respectively.

The Central Bank of Egypt left its overnight deposit rate at 15.75 percent during its July 2019 meeting, as widely expected. Policymakers said that the decision remains consistent with achieving the inflation target range of (9.0+/-3.0%) by the end of 2020 and price stability over the medium term. The Committee noted that the annual inflation rate fell to 9.4 percent in June from 14.1 percent in May, the lowest rate in over three years, mainly due to base effects, resulting from impact of the implemented fiscal consolidation measures in June 2018, and the decline of volatile food prices. Policymakers added that will monitor all economic developments and will adjust its stance to preserve monetary stability if necessary.

The Central Bank of Egypt held its overnight deposit rate at 15.75 percent during its May meeting despite ongoing US-China trade tensions, as policymakers are reluctant to change their monetary stance ahead of energy subsidy cuts expected next month, which are likely to boost inflation.

The central bank of Egypt left its key overnight deposit rate unchanged at 15.75 percent at its March 28th 2019 meeting, as widely expected. Policymakers noted that inflation rate and core inflation rate quickened to 14.4 percent and 9.2 percent in February 2019, respectively, mainly due to prices of fresh vegetables and partly impacted by an unfavourable base effect. Meanwhile, the contribution of non-food items remained broadly contained. The central bank maintains its inflation target at 9 percent (±3 percent) on average by Q4 2020. Looking ahead, the bank added that will continue to closely monitor all economic developments and will not hesitate to adjust its stance to preserve monetary stability. The overnight lending rate and the discount rate were also kept at 16.75 percent and 16.25 percent, respectively.