インド - 製造業PMI

The IHS Markit India Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in November 2019 from a two-year low of 50.6 in the previous month and beating market expectations of 49.8. Growth rates for new orders and production were modest, despite accelerating from October's recent lows. Also, export sales expanded further, though the rate was among the weakest over the past year-and-a-half. Meantime, firms shed jobs for the first time in 20 months and continued to reduce input buying. On the price front, there were slight increases in both input and output prices. Lastly, business sentiment strengthened, with panel members expecting advertising efforts and product diversification to support output growth in the year ahead.

The IHS Markit India Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.6 in October 2019, the lowest since October 2017, from 51.4 in the prior month and compared with market expectations of 51.8. Both output and new orders expanded at the slowest rate in two years. Also, employment grew for the 19th month, but the pace of job creation was the second weakest over this period, with backlogs of works accumulating the most since March; while quantities of purchases fell for the third month in a row. At the same time, there was a faster rise in export sales, amid improving global demand. On the price front, input cost inflation fell fractionally. Conversely, selling prices continued to increase, with the rate of charge inflation was at a seven-month high.

The IHS Markit India Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.4 in September 2019, unchanged from the previous month's 15-month low. Output expansion was the joint-slowest since March 2018 and new orders rose at the weakest rate in 23 months as export sales moved closer to stagnation. In addition, bleak demand conditions caused a second straight month of fall in quantities of purchases and, as a result, there were back-to-back declines in input stocks. Meanwhile, employment continued to grow, with the rate of increase being similar to the slight pace noted in August. On the price front, input cost inflation moderated to one of the lowest rates seen in over a decade. Subsequently, there was only a marginal rise in selling prices. Finally, business optimism was the second-lowest registered in over two-and-a-half years.

The IHS Markit India Manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.4 in August 2019 from 52.5 in the previous month and below market expectations of 52.2. The latest reading pointed to the weakest pace of expansion in the manufacturing sector since May 2018, as output rose the least in a year and new order growth slowed to a 15-month low, with overseas sales increasing at the softest rate since April 2018. At the same time, purchasing activity fell for the first time in 15 months. Subsequently, holdings of raw materials and semi-finished items declined, ending a 17-month period of accumulation. Meanwhile, employment rose only marginally, while backlogs of works were unchanged. On the price front, inflation accelerated to a nine-month high, though remained moderate and below its long-run average. Lastly, business sentiment strengthened to a 16-month high, amid hopes of a pick-up in demand and marketing efforts.

The IHS Markit India Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.5 in July 2019 from 52.1 in the previous month, as both output and new orders expanded a bit faster despite a slowdown in export sales amid subdued global trade flows. In addition, employment growth accelerated, while outstanding business increased for the first time in three months. On the price front, the manufacturing sector continued to register a general lack of inflationary pressures. Both input costs and output charges went up at marginal rates that were broadly negligible in the context of historical survey data. Looking ahead, sentiment reached a four-month high, boosted by advertising efforts and hopes of a pick-up in demand.

The IHS Markit India Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.1 in June 2019 from a three month-high of 52.7 in the previous month, but above market estimates of 51.7. A softer increase in new work intakes translated into slower rises in output and employment. Also, new export order growth eased to the second-slowest in over a year. Meantime, input buying strengthened to a four-month high, with stocks rising the most in over two years, while there was another decline in inventories of finished goods. In terms of prices, June data continued to show only a moderate increase in input costs, which in turn supported another round of selling charges discounting. Lastly, sentiment remained upbeat, though weakened slightly from that recorded in May.