ニュージーランド - 景況感

The ANZ Business Confidence Index in New Zealand jumped to -26.4 in November 2019 from -42.4 in the previous month and beating market expectations of -30.8. It was the highest reading since December last year, as firms’ expectations for their own activity over the year ahead rose to its strongest level in 2019 (12.9 from -3.5 in October). Also, employment (+3.2 from -9.4); investment (+5.6 from -5.5); and exports (+1.2 from -0.4) went up into positive territory. Among sectors, both commercial (5.9 from a flat reading) and residential construction (7.9 from -5.3) increased.

The ANZ Business Confidence Index in New Zealand increased to -42 in October 2019 from an over 11-year low of -53.5 in the previous month, beating market expectations of -54.1. It was the highest reading in three months, as investment dropped at a slower pace (-5.5 from -8.9 in September) and profit expectations (-21.2 vs -24.6) improved. Also, both pricing intentions (23.6 vs 18) and cost pressures (48.4 vs 47.3) went up, while inflation expectations fell slightly (1.62 vs 1.63). On the other hand, activity outlook declined to its lowest level since April 2019 (-3.5 vs -1.8); export expectations went down into negative territory (-0.4 vs 2.1); and employment intentions deteriorated (-9.4 vs -7.8). Among sectors, commercial construction intentions (a flat reading vs -12.5) and residential (-5.3 vs -19.2) rose.

The ANZ Business Confidence Index in New Zealand dropped to -53.5 in September 2019 from -52.3 in the previous month. This was the lowest reading since April 2008 on the back of heightening domestic and global headwinds. Activity outlook (-1.8 vs -0.5 in August), investment intentions (-8.9 vs -3.9) and profit expectations (-24.6 vs -19.5) dropped further, with capacity utilisation softening noticeably (1.9 vs 3.2). At the same time, pricing intentions eased to its lowest since October 2016 (18 vs 20.3), as cost pressures slowed (47.3 vs 49.2) and inflation expectations went down to its weakest level since December 2016 (1.63 vs 1.7). Meanwhile, employment intentions bounced back, though they were still negative (-7.8 vs -8.9) and export expectations rebounded (2.1 vs -0.8). Among sectors, commercial construction (-12.5 vs -4) and residential buildings (-19.2 vs -4) remained in negative territory.

The ANZ Business Confidence Index in New Zealand tumbled to -52.3 in August 2019 from -44.3 in the previous month. It was the lowest reading since April 2008 on the back of heightening domestic and global headwinds. Employment intentions deteriorated to its lowest since mid-2009 (-8.9 vs -5.5 in July) as firms intended to cut jobs, while both activity outlook (-0.5 vs 5.0) and export expectations turned to negative (-0.8 vs 1.4). In addition, investment intentions (-3.9 vs -0.4) and profit expectations (-19.5 vs -16.3) dropped further. At the same time, pricing intentions eased (20.3 vs 22.5), despite rising cost pressures (49.2 vs 46.7) and inflation expectations declined to its lowest since late 2016 (1.70 vs 1.81). Meanwhile, capacity utilization strengthened (3.2 vs 0.4). Among sectors, commercial construction (-4.0 vs -20.0) and residential buildings (-4.0 vs -15.8) rose but still remaining in negative territory.

The ANZ Business Confidence Index in New Zealand declined unexpectedly to -44.3 in July 2019 from -38.1 in the previous month and missing market estimates of -34.9. That was the worst reading since August last year, when the index was at -50.3. Employment intentions slumped (-5.5 vs 0) as firms sought to cut jobs, capacity utilization weakened to its lowest since 2009 (0.4 vs 5.3), and activity outlook (5.0 vs 8.0) and export expectations (1.4 vs 5.3) deteriorated. In addition, profit expectations fell further(-16.3 vs -12.5), while investment intentions turned to negative (-0.3 vs 2.5). Meantime, pricing intentions were little-changed (22.5 vs 22.6), amid an ease in cost pressures (46.7 vs 49.7), with inflation expectations edging down to near 2-year low (1.81 vs 1.87). Among sectors, commercial construction (-20.0 vs 4.8) and residential buildings (-15.8 vs 0.0) fell back to negative territory, indicating a rapid fall in activities ahead.

The ANZ Business Confidence Index in New Zealand declined unexpectedly to -38.1 in June 2019 from -32.0 in the previous month and compared with market consensus of -22.7. It was the lowest reading in eight months, as profit expectations fell further (-12.5 vs -9.6 in May) and pricing intentions dropped to its lowest since April last year (22.6 vs 28.5). Additionally, activity outlook (8 vs 8.5), capacity utilisation (5.3 vs 5.4) and investment intentions (2.5 vs 2.9) deteriorated while cost pressures were stable (at 49.7). On the other hand, employment intentions improved slightly (0.0 vs -0.3) and export expectations rose sharply (5.3 vs 0.0). Also, inflation expectations edged up from the previous month's 1-1/2 year low (1.87 vs 1.81). Among sectors, commercial construction intentions strengthened (4.8 vs 4.2) and residential rebounded from the prior month's 10-year low (0.0 vs -27.3).