ロシア - 製造業PMI

The IHS Markit Russia Manufacturing PMI dropped to 45.6 in November 2019, the lowest since May 2009, from 47.2 in the prior month. The overall contraction was driven by weaker demand conditions, with production and new orders falling at steeper rates. In addition, foreign demand dropped at a marked rate, and firms reduced further their workforce numbers. A reduction in pressure on capacity was also seen in a sharp fall in backlogs of work. At the same time, a sustained fall in purchasing activity led to inventory levels being depleted further as firms increasingly fulfilled pre-existing demand by selling from stock and utilising previously purchased raw materials. On the price front, inflationary pressures eased to historically muted rates, with weak client demand and greater efforts to discount leading to a fractional rise in output charges. Looking ahead, sentiment hit its lowest in two years.

The IHS Markit Russia Manufacturing PMI increased to 47.2 in October 2019 from 46.3 in a month earlier, pointing to the sixth consecutive month of contraction in the sector. Output declined at a softer rate, with new orders falling for the fifth month in a row and employment declining for the third straight month. Also, firms reduced their purchasing activity further as they supplemented production through the use of pre-production inventories. Meanwhile, export sales shrank the most in over a decade, amid weakening global demand. Regarding prices, inflationary pressures picked up slightly but remained historically muted. Output charges rose marginally as firms sought to stay competitive. Looking ahead, sentiment remained strongly positive.

The IHS Markit Russia Manufacturing PMI declined to 46.3 in September 2019 from 49.1 the previous month. This was the fifth straight month of contraction in factory activity, as new orders fell at a faster pace and new export orders dropped at the sharpest rate for three years. Also, output shrank for the fourth consecutive month and the steepest drop since April 2009, while employment declined for second successive month, and the fastest decline since May. At the same time, backlogs of work were depleted further and at a sharp pace. On the prices front, rates of both input price and output charge inflation eased, amid a more favourable ruble exchange rate. Finally, business confidence dipped to its lowest since December 2017.

The IHS Markit Russia Manufacturing PMI went down to 49.1 in August 2019 from 49.3 the previous month. This was the fourth straight month of contraction in factory activity, as new orders fell the most since May of 2015 and new export orders dropped at the sharpest rate since September 2015 . Also, output shrank for the third consecutive month and the workforce numbers declined, the fourth monthly contraction since April. Meanwhile, backlogs of work fell markedly. On the prices front, rates of both input price and output charge inflation picked up in August, although paces of increase remained relatively muted overall. Finlally, business confidence was at its highest since March.

The IHS Markit Russia Manufacturing PMI went up to 49.3 in July 2019 from 48.6 the previous month. This was the third straight month of contraction in factory activity, as output shrank for the second consecutive month, albeit at only fractional rate, due to a further fall in new business. Additionally, new export orders contracted for the third month in a row, the quickest since July 2018. Meantime, the workforce numbers rose for first time in four months. Inflationary pressure softened as the slowest rise in input costs since February 2017 translated into only a fractional rise in output charges. Finally, confidence remained upbeat, however, linked to new product launches.

The IHS Markit Russia Manufacturing PMI fell to an eleven-month low of 48.6 in June 2019 from 49.8 the previous month. Weighing on June's headline PMI was the first contraction in new business since August 2018. The fall was slight, but signalled a notable turnaround from March's recent high. Also, output shrank following eight months of expansion, with the downturn was the fastest since April 2016. Additionally, new export orders contracted for the second month in a row; workforce numbers fell further, with backlogs falling faster; and input buying dropped at the fastest rate in over four years . On the price front, input cost inflation hit its lowest since July 2017. Meantime, output charges rose the least since March 2018, amid discounting and promotions. Finally, sentiment weakened to a near one-year low, though remained above its historical trend.