オーストラリア - 景況感

The NAB business confidence index in Australia bounced two points to +2 in October 2019, beating market expectations of 0, with mining, construction, retail and finance, business & property services clustered round 3 points. Business conditions also improved (up 1 point to +3), driven by an uptick in trading (up 3 points to +7) and profitability (up 2 points to 0) while the employment index was flat (at +4). At the same time, forward looking indicators were slightly more positive, with a rise in forwards orders and capital expenditure, while capacity utilisation edged lower, but remained above average. "There was a small improvement in both confidence and conditions in October, but both indicators largely point to more of the same for the business sector – that is, the below average run of confidence and conditions has continued following a significant deterioration through the second half of 2018 and through to mid-2019” Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist, said.

The NAB business confidence index in Australia fell to 0 in September 2019 from 1 in August and below its long run average of 6. Meantime, business conditions advanced 1 point to 2, still below average for the 6th straight month, as trading (+1 point to 4), profitability (+1 points to -2), and employment (+1 points to 3) increased. Forward looking indicators were mixed and capacity utilisation declined, but remained above average. Across sectors, sentiment dropped in all industries except retail and construction which rose and recreation & personal services, which was flat. “We continue to watch the business sector closely – the housing downturn and the weakness in the retail sector are likely to continue to play out further, adding to private sector weakness in the economy. Rate cuts will help but will lag and with a weak consumer and higher global uncertainty, we are unlikely to see a material improvement in the short-term”, NAB chief economist Oster said.

The NAB business confidence index in Australia plunged to 1 in August 2019 from 4 in July and well below its long run average of 6. Confidence was weaker across most industries, but increased in manufacturing and mining. At the same time, business conditions weakened, continuing below average, with sales (down 4 points to 3) and profitability (down 3 points to -3) being lower, while employment grew to its average level (up 2 points to 2). Transport & utilities and finance, business & property services and mining drove the fall in business conditions, which was partially offset by an improvement in the retail sector. Meanwhile, forward looking indicators remain weak. “It looks like the tax cuts have had little effect on household consumption or have not been large enough to offset increasing weakness in the sector. The two rate cuts also may have had little impact, though this is expected with the longer and more variable lags of monetary policy,” said NAB chief economist Alan Oster.

The NAB business confidence index in Australia rose to 4 in July 2019 from 2 in June, beating market expectations of 3. The lift was broad-based across industries after a sharp fall in June and a period of volatility around the Federal Election. However, the bounce may have been short lived, as sentiment remained below average levels. Meanwhile, business conditions weakened, driven by a decline in the employment sub-index (down 5 points to 0). Trading conditions also edged lower, while reported profitability increased slightly in the month. Forward-looking indicators remain weak. Forward orders edged higher in the month but remained negative and well below average while capacity utilisation unwound its sharp spike last month and is now again just below average. "It appears that both the cut to interest rates and boost to tax rebates is yet to feed into the business sector and that the weakness in Q2 has persisted into Q3", said NAB group chief economist Alan Oster.

The NAB business confidence index in Australia fell to 2 in June 2019 from 7 in the previous month and matching market expectations. The latest figure was below its long-run average of 6, with wholesale and transport & utilities showing the weakest levels of confidence. However, business conditions strengthened (up 2 points to 3), due to a lift in employment (up 3 points to 5) and sales (up 3 points to 6), while profitability was unchanged (at -2). Meanwhile, leading indicators were mixed. Forward orders were unchanged and remained weak (at -4) with evidence of weakness across most industries. Capacity utilization rose (82.1% vs 80.9% in May), but after easing in early 2019, remaining below levels seen in late 2018. “For now, labor market developments appear to be the key driver of monetary policy, with weak wage growth seeing both slower household income growth and weak inflationary pressure," said Alan Oster, NAB economist.

The NAB business confidence index in Australia surged to 7 in May 2019 from 0 in April, boosted by the Federal election results and expectations of the RBA rate cut. However, the latest reading could be short-lived, as business conditions weakened (-2 points to 1) with both sales (-5 points to 3) and profitability (-4 points to -3) falling while employment rose (+3 points to 2). Also, forward orders dropped further (-1 point to -3), exports were unchanged (at -1); and capacity utilisation decreased to below its average (80.9% vs 81.1%). Across sectors, the goods distribution industries remained weak, followed by manufacturing, while the services industries appeared to be holding up better still it deteriorated over the past year.