イギリス - 消費者信頼感

The GfK consumer confidence in the United Kingdom remained unchanged at -14 in November 2019, the lowest level since 2013, ahead of the December general election. One sub-index increased, one was unchanged, and three decreased in November. The print for the general economy over the next twelve months gained 3 points, suggesting that some consumers believe the imminent general election might clear the Brexit deadlock. In contrast, the measure for the country’s general economic situation during the last 12 months lost 1 point to -34 . "We have not seen a positive headline score since January 2016 – that’s nearly four years ago. Uncertainty is nobody’s friend. So, while many issues are under the spotlight in this election, political parties will need to satisfy voters that they will be effective for the wider economy and that, as a consequence, people will be better off next year and beyond,” said Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director at GfK.

The GfK consumer confidence in the United Kingdom lost 2 points from a month earlier to -14 in October 2019, compared to market consensus of -12, with all five components declining as Brexit uncertainty continued to weigh on sentiment. The gauge for personal finances over the next 12 months fell 3 points to 1, and that for personal finances over the past year dropped 1 point to 1. In addition, the index for the country's general economic situation during the last 12 months decreased one point to -33, while expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months retreated two points to -37. The big purchases climate index was down 2 points to 1.

The GfK consumer confidence in the United Kingdom gained 2 points from a month earlier to -12 in September 2019, compared to market consensus of -14, with all five components rising, as consumers brace for the Brexit deadline. The sub-index for personal finances during the last 12 months increased 3 points this month to +2, and that for personal finances over the next 12 months gained 2 points to +4. Also, the gauge for general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months climbed 2 points to -32, and that for the general economic situation over the next 12 months rose 3 points to -35. The big purchase climate sub-index advanced 2 points to +3. "Since the Brexit referendum we have witnessed a long succession of negative Overall Index scores with the overall trend downwards. This month, British consumers appear to be treading water during this wait-and-see run-up to October 31st,” said Joe Stanton, Client Strategy Director at GfK.

The GfK consumer confidence in the United Kingdom fell 3 points from a month earlier to -14 in August 2019, below market consensus of -12. It was a seven-month low with all five measures declining, as growth concerns and domestic policy uncertainty mainly over Brexit continue to weigh on sentiment. The measure for the country’s general economic situation during the last 12 months dropped 2 points this month to -34, whereas expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months fell 6 points to -38. Also, the gauge for personal fiances over the last 12 months declined 2 points to -1 and that for personal finances over the next 12 months slumped 5 points to 2. The big purchases climate sub-index went down 3 points to 1. “Until Brexit leaves the front pages – whenever that will be – consumers can be forgiven for feeling nervous not just about the wider economy but also about their financial situation,” said Joe Stanton, Client Strategy Director at GfK.

The GfK consumer confidence in the United Kingdom increased two points from a month earlier to -11 in July 2019, beating market expectations of -13. Still, growth concerns and domestic policy uncertainty continue to weigh on sentiment. There was an improvement in expectations over the next 12 months regarding personal finances (7 vs 2 in June) and economic situation (-32 vs -33), as well as in past assessment over financial situation (1 vs -1) and major purchases climate (4 vs -2). "Although it’s too soon to judge any impact of a post-Boris bounce, we can report a boost in attitudes to our personal financial situation in the face of low interest rates and day-to-day inflation, a buoyant labour market and growth in real wages,", said GfK Client Strategy Director Joe Staton.

The GfK consumer confidence index in the UK declined to -13 in June 2019, erasing a 3-point rebound to -10 in the previous month and missing market consensus of -11, as global growth concerns and domestic policy uncertainty weighed on sentiment. All five subindices dropped from the previous month: personal finances over the last 12 months (-1 vs 3) and over the next 12 months (2 vs 5); economic situation over the last 12 months (-32 vs -30) and over the next 12 months (-33 vs -29); and big purchases climate (-2 vs 1)."While UK consumers continue to remain concerned about the wider economy, over which the woman or man in the street has no control, of greater worry are the falls in the measures for personal finance. These better reflect our hopes and fears for our everyday financial futures and this, coupled with a decline in the Major Purchase Index, could point to a turbulent time for the economy over the summer months.” said Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director at GfK.